Based on Hong Rong (洪榕), A股赚钱必修课 (Essential Course on A-Share Profiting)
Hong Rong, a veteran financial commentator and former brokerage executive in China, wrote this book as a practical survival guide for retail investors in the A-share market. The central argument is that most retail investors lose money not because the market is inherently unfair, but because they approach it with fundamentally wrong assumptions, emotional decision-making, and zero understanding of the market's structural characteristics.
The book is structured as a "required course" — a curriculum of lessons that every A-share participant must internalize before risking real capital. It covers:
Module 1: MARKET STRUCTURE — How A-shares actually work (participants, rules, incentives)
Module 2: VALUATION — How to assess whether a stock is cheap or expensive
Module 3: SECTORS — How to identify which sectors will lead in each cycle
Module 4: TIMING — How to recognize where we are in the bull/bear cycle
Module 5: PSYCHOLOGY — How to overcome the behavioral traps that destroy returns
The book explicitly targets Chinese retail investors (散户) — the 200+ million individual accounts that dominate A-share trading volume. Hong Rong writes with the assumption that his reader:
Hong Rong opens with a stark reality: approximately 70-80% of Chinese retail investors lose money over any multi-year period (the "7-2-1" rule: 70% lose, 20% break even, 10% profit). The book's purpose is to move the reader from the 70% into the 10%.
The root causes of retail losses, per the author:
1. Trading too frequently — paying commissions and spreads that compound into massive drag
2. Chasing hot stocks/sectors — buying at peaks, selling at troughs
3. Ignoring valuation entirely — treating stocks as lottery tickets, not ownership stakes
4. Following the herd — buying when everyone is euphoric, panicking when everyone sells
5. No risk management — concentrating in single stocks, no stop-losses, averaging down blindly
6. Misunderstanding market structure — not recognizing policy cycles, IPO supply dynamics, etc.
Hong Rong emphasizes that understanding who you are trading against is the first step to profiting:
Participant | Incentive | Behavior Pattern
-------------------|--------------------------|------------------------------------------
Retail investors | Get rich quick | Herding, overtrading, panic selling
Institutional funds| Relative performance | Momentum-chasing, window-dressing
Private equity (PE)| Lock-up period exit | Sell after IPO lock-up expires
Corporate insiders | Cash out holdings | Sell during market euphoria
Market makers | Spread capture | Provide liquidity, profit from volatility
Government/regulators| Market stability | Policy intervention at extremes
The critical insight: retail investors are systematically on the wrong side of transactions with better-informed, better-capitalized participants. The only way to survive is to stop playing the game on their terms and adopt a different timeframe and methodology.
Key structural features that differ from Western markets:
Hong Rong identifies a recurring pattern in A-share history:
Phase 1: POLICY BOTTOM — Government signals support (rate cuts, stamp tax reduction, state media
encouragement). Smart money begins accumulating. Retail sentiment is still bearish.
Phase 2: MARKET BOTTOM — Indices form a technical bottom, typically 1-3 months after the policy
bottom. Volume begins to expand. Some retail investors notice.
Phase 3: BULL MARKET — Broad-based rally. Retail investors return en masse. IPO activity
accelerates. Margin lending expands. Media coverage intensifies.
Phase 4: POLICY TOP — Government signals concern (tightens margin rules, increases IPO supply,
state media warns of "irrational exuberance"). Smart money begins distributing.
Phase 5: MARKET TOP — Indices peak, typically 1-3 months after policy warnings. Volume is at
maximum. Retail participation and leverage are at extremes.
Phase 6: BEAR MARKET — Broad-based decline. Retail investors are trapped. Forced liquidation of
margin positions accelerates the decline.
The key lesson: the policy bottom precedes the market bottom, and the policy top precedes the market top. Investors who watch policy signals gain a structural timing advantage.
Hong Rong advocates PE (price-to-earnings) ratio as the primary valuation tool for A-share investors, but with important contextual adjustments:
Valuation Zone | Shanghai Composite PE | Action
------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------------------
Deep value | Below 10x | Aggressive accumulation (rare, crisis-level)
Undervalued | 10x - 13x | Systematic buying, increase positions
Fair value | 13x - 18x | Hold existing positions, selective new buys
Overvalued | 18x - 25x | Reduce positions, take profits
Bubble territory | Above 25x | Aggressive selling, move to cash/bonds
Important caveats the author stresses:
For sectors where earnings are volatile or subject to provisioning (banks, insurance, steel, real estate), Hong Rong recommends price-to-book (PB) as the primary metric:
Sector-Specific PB Thresholds:
- Banks: Below 0.7x PB = deep value; above 1.2x PB = fully valued
- Insurance: Below 1.0x embedded value = deep value
- Steel/Commodities: Below 1.0x PB during cycle trough = accumulate
- Real estate: Below 0.8x NAV = potential value (with policy risk caveat)
In an A-share market where growth expectations frequently overshoot reality, dividend yield serves as a reality check:
If dividend_yield > 1yr bank deposit rate × 1.5:
Stock is likely undervalued relative to risk-free alternatives
If dividend_yield < 1yr bank deposit rate × 0.5:
Stock is priced for aggressive growth that may not materialize
Hong Rong maps A-share sector rotation to the economic cycle, adapted from the classic Merrill Lynch investment clock but calibrated to Chinese market realities:
Economic Phase | Leading Sectors | Lagging Sectors
------------------|------------------------------------|------------------------
Early recovery | Financials, real estate, autos | Defensives, utilities
Mid expansion | Technology, consumer discretionary | Commodities (early)
Late expansion | Commodities, energy, materials | Financials, real estate
Slowdown | Healthcare, consumer staples | Cyclicals, technology
Recession | Utilities, bonds, cash | Nearly everything
Unique to China, government policy creates investable sector themes that can persist for years:
Policy Theme Examples:
- "Made in China 2025" → Semiconductors, industrial automation, EV batteries
- "Common Prosperity" → Consumer staples, healthcare, education (negative)
- "Dual Circulation" → Domestic consumption, import substitution
- "Carbon Neutrality" → Solar, wind, EV, energy storage
- "Digital Economy" → Cloud computing, AI, big data
The author warns: the best time to buy policy-theme stocks is when the policy is announced but the market has not yet fully priced it in. By the time retail investors are discussing a theme at dinner parties, the easy money has been made.
Within any promising sector, Hong Rong's framework for identifying the leader:
1. Market share: #1 or #2 in their specific niche
2. Margin advantage: Gross margins above sector average
3. Revenue growth: Consistently above sector peers for 3+ years
4. Institutional ownership: Increasing fund holdings quarter over quarter
5. Policy alignment: Direct beneficiary of specific government policy
Hong Rong provides a composite dashboard for cycle identification:
Indicator | Bull Signal | Bear Signal
---------------------------|-----------------------|------------------------
New account openings | Surging (lagging) | Collapsing (lagging)
Margin lending balance | Rising from trough | Declining from peak
IPO pace | Accelerating | Paused/slowed
Shanghai Composite PE | Below 13x | Above 25x
Trading volume | Expanding from low | Contracting from high
Policy stance | Easing (rate cuts) | Tightening (rate hikes)
State media tone | Encouraging investment| Warning of speculation
Fund issuance | Difficult (bearish) | Record subscriptions (top)
Hong Rong identifies three sequential bottoms in A-share bear-to-bull transitions:
1. POLICY BOTTOM: Government announces supportive measures. Market may still decline 10-20%.
2. MARKET BOTTOM: Technical bottom forms. Volume dries up completely. Despair is maximum.
3. ECONOMIC BOTTOM: Macro data confirms recovery. By this point, the market has already
rallied 20-40% from the market bottom.
The profitable strategy: begin building positions at the policy bottom, add aggressively at the market bottom, and hold through to the economic bottom confirmation.
Volume Pattern | Interpretation | Action
---------------------------|-------------------------------|------------------
Low volume + falling price | Selling exhaustion approaching | Prepare to buy
Rising volume + rising price| Healthy uptrend | Hold/add
Extreme volume + price spike| Climactic buying, near top | Prepare to sell
Declining volume + rising price| Divergence, trend weakening| Reduce positions
Hong Rong's complete entry checklist:
□ Market cycle: We are in Phase 1-3 (policy bottom → bull market), NOT Phase 4-6
□ Index valuation: Shanghai Composite PE below 18x (preferably below 15x)
□ Sector alignment: Target sector is in the leading group for current economic phase
□ Individual stock quality: Meets fundamental screening criteria (see Section 4.3)
□ Technical confirmation: Stock is above its 60-day moving average with expanding volume
□ Position sizing: Entry size does not exceed 10% of total portfolio
□ Risk budget: Maximum drawdown on this position if stopped out < 2% of total portfolio
Entry Tranche 1 (30% of planned position): When all entry criteria are met
Entry Tranche 2 (30% of planned position): After stock confirms uptrend (higher low)
Entry Tranche 3 (40% of planned position): After first earnings report confirms thesis
OVERRIDE BUY: Market-wide panic selling (PE below 10x, volume collapsed) — buy index ETF
regardless of individual stock criteria. These are generational opportunities.
OVERRIDE SKIP: Even if all criteria are met, do NOT enter if:
- The stock has already risen 50%+ from its recent bottom
- Insider selling is accelerating
- The sector is being discussed by taxi drivers and hairdressers
Stop Type | Trigger | Action
-----------------|--------------------------------------|---------------------------
Initial stop | Price falls 8% below entry price | Sell entire position
Trailing stop | Price falls 15% from highest close | Sell entire position
Time stop | No progress after 3 months | Sell 50%, reassess
Fundamental stop | Earnings miss by >20% | Sell entire position
Valuation stop | Stock PE exceeds 2x sector average | Sell 50%
Policy stop | Negative policy directly targeting | Sell entire position
| the stock's sector |
Gain Level | Action
-----------------|---------------------------------------------------------
+20% | Sell 1/3 of position, raise stop to breakeven
+50% | Sell another 1/3, trailing stop at +30%
+100% | Sell remaining, or hold with tight 20% trailing stop
When ANY TWO of the following are true, reduce overall equity exposure to 50%:
1. Shanghai Composite PE exceeds 22x
2. New account openings exceed 1 million per week
3. State media publishes warnings about speculation
4. Margin lending balance exceeds previous cycle peak
5. Multiple IPOs subscribed at 100x+ oversubscription
When ANY THREE of the above are true, reduce equity exposure to 20% or less.
Maximum single stock: 10% of total portfolio (at cost)
Maximum single sector: 30% of total portfolio
Maximum equity exposure: Varies by market cycle:
- Bear market (PE > 20x): 20-40% equity, 60-80% cash/bonds
- Fair value (PE 13-20x): 50-70% equity
- Undervalued (PE < 13x): 80-100% equity
Minimum cash reserve: 10% at all times (opportunity fund)
Minimum number of stocks: 5 (avoid over-concentration)
Maximum number of stocks: 15 (avoid over-diversification)
Sector limit: No more than 3 stocks in same sector
Correlation check: Avoid holding multiple stocks that move identically
Hong Rong is emphatic: no margin lending for retail investors. The A-share market's combination of T+1 settlement, 10% daily limits, and policy-driven volatility makes leverage a reliable path to ruin for individual investors. The forced liquidation cascade during the 2015 crash is cited as the ultimate cautionary tale.
LEVERAGE RULE: Never use margin. Never. Zero exceptions for retail investors.
If you cannot afford to buy a stock with cash, you cannot afford to buy it at all.
1. Never trade based on tips from friends, social media, or "stock gods" (股神)
2. Never chase a stock that has already risen more than 50% from its low
3. Never average down on a losing position without a pre-planned averaging strategy
4. Never hold more than 15 stocks — you cannot monitor that many effectively
5. Never invest money you will need within the next 3 years
6. Never ignore a stop-loss trigger — the first loss is the smallest loss
7. Never increase position size after a winning streak (overconfidence trap)
8. Never revenge-trade after a loss (trying to "make it back" immediately)
9. Never confuse a bull market with personal skill
10. Always maintain a trading journal and review it monthly
Emotion | When It Appears | Correct Response
-------------|------------------------|-------------------------------------------
Greed | Stock up 30%+ | Execute profit-taking rules mechanically
Fear | Portfolio down 10%+ | Check if stop-loss hit; if not, hold
FOMO | Missed stock up 100% | Do nothing. There are always new opportunities
Euphoria | Everything is green | This is when you should be most cautious
Despair | Bear market lows | This is actually the best time to buy
Impatience | Stock flat for weeks | Review thesis; if valid, patience is the edge
CONSUME:
- Company quarterly/annual reports
- Official policy announcements (State Council, PBOC, CSRC)
- Index-level valuation data
- Sector-level fundamental data
AVOID:
- Stock forum tips and "insider information"
- Social media stock recommendations
- Paid stock-picking services (99% are scams)
- Financial media during market hours (designed to provoke action)
- Any source that promises specific return targets
Sin #1: FREQUENCY — Trading too often
Reality: Each round-trip costs 0.1-0.3% in commissions and slippage.
At 2 trades/week, annual friction exceeds 15-30% — a nearly impossible hurdle.
Fix: Target holding period of 3-12 months minimum.
Sin #2: CONCENTRATION — All-in on one stock
Reality: Even great companies can drop 50% due to market-wide events.
Fix: Minimum 5 positions, maximum 10% per position.
Sin #3: CHASING — Buying after a stock has already surged
Reality: By the time you hear about it, the smart money is selling to you.
Fix: Only buy stocks in your pre-screened watchlist with valid entry setups.
Sin #4: STUBBORNNESS — Refusing to sell losers
Reality: "It will come back" is the most expensive sentence in investing.
Fix: Honor the 8% initial stop-loss without exception.
Sin #5: IMPATIENCE — Selling winners too early
Reality: Retail investors cut winners and hold losers — the exact opposite of
what produces positive returns.
Fix: Use trailing stops, not fixed profit targets, for winning positions.
Sin #6: LEVERAGE — Using margin or borrowed money
Reality: The 2015 crash wiped out leveraged retail accounts in weeks.
Fix: Cash only. Always.
Sin #7: HERD FOLLOWING — Buying what everyone is talking about
Reality: Popular stocks are popular because they already went up.
Fix: Be contrarian at extremes; follow your own systematic process.
Hong Rong provides data showing that aggregate retail investor flows consistently show net buying at market peaks and net selling at market bottoms. The psychological mechanism:
Market at bottom → Fear dominates → Retail sells → Prices fall further
Market at top → Greed dominates → Retail buys → Sets up for crash
The fix is mechanical rules that FORCE contrarian behavior:
- Increase buying when index PE drops below 13x
- Decrease exposure when index PE exceeds 20x
- These rules must be followed regardless of emotional state
CONTEXT: Late 2018 bear market aftermath
STEP 1: MARKET ASSESSMENT (December 2018)
- Shanghai Composite at ~2500, PE ratio ~11x (deep value zone)
- Government has announced multiple support measures (policy bottom confirmed)
- Retail sentiment extremely bearish (everyone swears off stocks forever)
- Margin lending balance at multi-year lows
→ ASSESSMENT: Policy bottom confirmed, market bottom forming. Begin building positions.
STEP 2: SECTOR SELECTION
- Economic phase: Early recovery expected (monetary easing underway)
- Leading sectors in early recovery: Financials, consumer, technology
- Policy theme: "New infrastructure" (5G, data centers, AI)
→ SELECTED SECTORS: Technology (5G theme) + Consumer staples (defensive + growth)
STEP 3: STOCK SELECTION
- Screen technology sector for: market share leader, revenue growth >20%, gross margin >30%
- Identify: Company A — leading 5G equipment supplier
- Revenue growth: 25% YoY
- Gross margin: 35%
- PE: 18x (reasonable for growth)
- Institutional ownership: Increasing past 2 quarters
→ SELECTED: Company A at ¥25/share
STEP 4: ENTRY EXECUTION
- Tranche 1 (30%): Buy at ¥25 — all entry criteria met
- Set initial stop-loss: ¥23 (8% below entry)
- Tranche 2 (30%): Buy at ¥27 after stock confirms uptrend (higher low at ¥24.50)
- Tranche 3 (40%): Buy at ¥30 after Q1 2019 earnings confirm revenue acceleration
STEP 5: POSITION MANAGEMENT
- Average entry: ¥27.50
- Stock reaches ¥35 (+27%): Sell 1/3, raise stop to ¥27.50 (breakeven)
- Stock reaches ¥42 (+53%): Sell another 1/3, trailing stop at ¥36
- Stock reaches ¥50 (+82%): Hold remaining with 20% trailing stop at ¥40
STEP 6: EXIT
- Shanghai Composite PE reaches 18x in April 2019
- Stock at ¥48, trailing stop at ¥40
- Market starts to weaken, stock pulls back to ¥42
- Trailing stop not hit, continue holding
- Stock eventually triggers trailing stop at ¥40
→ FINAL EXIT: ¥40 on remaining 1/3 position
RESULT:
- Tranche 1: Sold at ¥35, gain +40%
- Tranche 2: Sold at ¥42, gain +56%
- Tranche 3: Sold at ¥40, gain +33%
- Weighted average gain: ~41% over approximately 6 months
"In the A-share market, 70% of investors lose money, 20% break even, and only 10% profit.
Your first task is not to make money — it is to leave the 70%."
"The policy bottom always comes before the market bottom. Those who wait for the market to
confirm have already missed 20% of the move."
"Retail investors have exactly one structural advantage over institutions: they have no
benchmark, no quarterly performance pressure, and no career risk. They can afford to wait.
Yet most retail investors trade as if they are day traders with a deadline."
"Never use leverage in A-shares. The market's T+1 rules, daily price limits, and policy
sensitivity create a volatility regime where margin calls are not a risk — they are a certainty
over any multi-year period."
"The best time to buy is when everyone around you is swearing off stocks forever.
The best time to sell is when your taxi driver is recommending stocks."
"Valuation is not a timing tool — it is a survival tool. You can be early, but if you buy
at low valuations, time will eventually bail you out. If you buy at high valuations, nothing
can save you."
"Sector rotation is not about predicting the future — it is about recognizing where we are
in the cycle and positioning accordingly. The cycle always turns."
"The A-share market rewards patience and punishes activity. The less you trade, the more
you keep. Every transaction is a tax on your returns."
"Do not confuse a bull market with personal genius. When the tide goes out, you will discover
whether your returns came from skill or from leverage and luck."
"Your trading journal is more valuable than any stock tip. It is the only honest record of
your decisions and their outcomes."
Implementation specification compiled from Hong Rong (洪榕), A股赚钱必修课. This document is a systematic distillation for practical application and does not replace reading the original work.