作者：如何参与加密货币市场的牛市

How to Participate in the Crypto Bull Market — Complete Implementation Specification

Based on Luo Sheng (Criss), How to Participate in the Crypto Bull Market (如何参与加密货币市场的牛市) (2023)

Table of Contents

  1. Overview
  2. Core Methodology — Two-Phase Bull Market Framework
  3. Bull Market Identification — Objective Signals
  4. Bitcoin's Economic Model — The Halving Cycle
  5. Spot Trading Strategy
  6. Altcoin Selection Criteria
  7. Market Sentiment Indicators
  8. Futures/Contract Trading Strategy
  9. Entry Rules
  10. Exit / Stop-Loss Rules
  11. Position Sizing
  12. Risk Management
  13. Behavioral / Discipline Rules
  14. Common Mistakes
  15. Complete Trade Lifecycle Example — Spot
  16. Complete Trade Lifecycle Example — Contract
  17. Implementation Pseudocode
  18. Key Quotes

1. Overview

This book is a concise (46-page) practical guide to trading the cryptocurrency bull market, written by Luo Sheng (known as Criss on YouTube), a trader active since the 2017 ICO boom. The book focuses exclusively on bull market participation -- it does not cover bear market strategies, day trading, or general technical analysis education.

Core thesis: The crypto market follows a predictable 4-year bull/bear cycle driven by Bitcoin's halving schedule. The bull market unfolds in two distinct phases, each requiring different strategies. By identifying objective bull market signals, trading only long positions during confirmed uptrends, and exercising extreme patience, a small-capital trader can realistically achieve 8-10x returns over 3 years through steady accumulation rather than single heroic trades.

Applicable markets: Primarily Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins traded on Binance, OKX, and similar exchanges. The trendline-breakout methodology also applies to gold and traditional equities, but the specific cycle timing and position sizing rules are crypto-specific.

Philosophy: Livermore's approach distilled -- buy only in uptrends, short only in downtrends. The author uses a "moving average + structure" methodology outside bull markets (strict conditions, no trade if not met), but switches to a simpler breakout-and-dip-buying approach once the bull is confirmed, because conservatism in a bull market is a sin.

2. Core Methodology — Two-Phase Bull Market Framework

The bull market is divided into two distinct phases with different objectives, instruments, and position sizing:

Phase 1: BTC Accumulation (Before All-Time-High Breakout)

Phase 2: Altcoin Explosion (After BTC ATH Breakout)

Critical transition rule: When BTC breaks its all-time high, withdraw at least half of all accumulated profits permanently (for living expenses or conservative investments). Remaining capital is redeployed into altcoins using the same methodology.

3. Bull Market Identification — Objective Signals

Phase 1 Signal: Weekly Trendline Breakout

  1. During bear market declines, draw steep descending trendlines on the BTC weekly chart
  2. The first trendline break produces a rally, then a new decline forms a second, flatter trendline
  3. After 2-3 such iterations, a relatively flat descending trendline emerges
  4. When this final trendline is broken to the upside AND the previous swing high is also broken, Phase 1 of the bull market has begun
  5. Alternative confirmation: All timeframe moving averages (EMA144, 288 or MA30, 60, 120) achieve a full golden cross alignment on the weekly/monthly chart

Important caveat on trendlines: A trendline break only represents a change in the slope of the decline, not necessarily a trend reversal. If the break is followed by sideways action (not a drop), the uptrend is likely continuing. If followed by a decline, the downtrend may resume. Always confirm by also breaking the previous swing high.

Phase 2 Signal: BTC All-Time-High Breakout

Six Characteristics of a Running Bull Market

  1. Most candles are bullish (yang lines), few shadows, even fewer bearish candles on daily/weekly
  2. Most reversal patterns fail and morph into continuation patterns (e.g., head-and-shoulders tops fail, become consolidations before further advance)
  3. After breaking below a trendline, price consolidates sideways rather than plunging -- then continues up
  4. Price stays above moving averages; dips below MA provide only brief buying windows before quick recovery
  5. Pullbacks are shallow: typically Fibo 0.236-0.5, rarely reaching 0.618; deep pullbacks signal bull is ending
  6. Advance consists of small bullish candles, rarely large ones -- the biggest single candle in early stages is often bearish, fooling weak hands into thinking the bull hasn't started; by the time climactic large bullish candles appear, the bull is near its end

4. Bitcoin's Economic Model — The Halving Cycle

Bitcoin block reward halvings create a predictable 4-year cycle:

Date Block Height Reward Cycle Peak Cycle Trough
Jan 2009 0 50 BTC — —
Nov 28, 2012 210,000 25 BTC Dec 17, 2017 Dec 16, 2018
Jul 9, 2016 420,000 12.5 BTC Nov 10, 2021 Nov 9, 2022
May 12, 2020 630,000 6.25 BTC (cycle ongoing at time of writing) —
~Apr 2024 840,000 3.125 BTC (predicted) —

Key observation: Peak-to-trough timing is remarkably consistent (364 days in both 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles). The bull market typically launches within a few months to half a year after each halving.

Diminishing returns per cycle: Each successive bull market has smaller gains and a narrower range of coins that participate. 2017: nearly everything rose 10-100x. 2021: most projects rose only 2-3x from their lows, with many never exceeding BTC's performance. The author projects the next cycle will have an even smaller percentage of outperformers -- concentrate on 3-5 strongest coins.

5. Spot Trading Strategy

Time Horizon and Holding Period

Spot Entry Logic (3 Technical Conditions)

  1. Weekly candle is far below MA20 -- price is cheap relative to average cost
  2. Price hits a key support level with massive volume -- institutional accumulation
  3. Price rapidly tests and holds a channel line -- confirms support

Spot Exit Logic

Capital Allocation Between Phases

6. Altcoin Selection Criteria

Only begin altcoin participation after Phase 1 bull signal (weekly trendline breakout) is confirmed. Three screening dimensions:

Dimension 1: Market Cap Ranking

Dimension 2: Trading Volume

Dimension 3: Relative Strength During BTC Corrections

Special Attention: Bear Market Listings

What NOT to Look At

7. Market Sentiment Indicators

Three data points for reading crowd sentiment (used as secondary confirmation, never as primary signals):

A. BTC Dominance (BTC.D)

B. BTC Perpetual Funding Rate

Key example: Nov 2022, after FTX collapse, BTC funding rate hit -0.12% (unprecedented extreme). Combined with price stabilization, this confirmed an exceptional buying opportunity.

C. BTC Open Interest (Futures)

8. Futures/Contract Trading Strategy

Core Principle: Immediate Floating Profit

Contracts magnify emotional volatility due to leverage. Therefore, the contract strategy demands entering only at breakout points where price immediately moves in your favor. Never hold a losing contract position hoping for recovery.

Two Entry Modes (Both Are Breakout Entries)

Mode 1: Descending Trendline Breakout (Bull Flag Breakout)

Mode 2: Previous High Breakout (ATH or Swing High)

Contract Time Frame

Contract Instrument Selection

9. Entry Rules

Spot Entry (Left-Side, Counter-Trend)

Condition Requirement
Macro background Monthly chart must be in uptrend (or at minimum, weekly chart bullish)
Weekly candle position Significantly below MA20 (price is "cheap" relative to moving average)
Key support Price at or near a major support level (channel line, historical support)
Volume Massive volume spike on the decline (institutional accumulation signal)
Candle structure Large bearish candle with body close = buy at close; long lower shadow = wait for retest of shadow low
Two-leg pullback If entering on first leg, second leg low rarely breaks first leg low in a bull market; even if slightly lower, recovery within 1-2 candles

Contract Entry (Right-Side, Breakout)

Condition Requirement
Macro background Confirmed bull market (Phase 1 or Phase 2 signal present)
Pattern 2-leg or 3-leg pullback forming descending trendline OR horizontal consolidation below previous high
Trigger Trendline break + swing high break (Mode 1) OR previous high break (Mode 2)
Immediate confirmation Price must move in favor immediately; if stalling at breakout level, the setup is suspect
Time frame Daily or 4-hour chart

Universal Rule

10. Exit / Stop-Loss Rules

Stop-Loss for Contracts

Stop-Loss for Spot

Profit-Taking (Contracts)

Profit-Taking (Spot)

11. Position Sizing

Early Bull Market (Contracts)

After Bull Has Run ~6 Months (Post-ATH)

Spot Position Sizing

12. Risk Management

Portfolio-Level Controls

  1. Permanent profit withdrawal: When BTC breaks ATH, withdraw >50% of all profits. This money never returns to the market
  2. Progressive position reduction: As the bull matures, position sizes shrink. This naturally reduces exposure without needing to "call the top"
  3. Technical exit = natural top-calling: By following the trailing stop and time-limit rules, you will exit near the top without ever trying to predict it. "Escaping the top is a natural outcome of following the rules" (逃顶是水到渠成的事情)
  4. Stop trading when strategy fails: If you experience a streak of losses or breakouts that immediately fail, the market regime has changed. Stop trading and observe. "When we cannot see profits, it means we are no longer correct. When we leave the market with profits, we have likely already escaped the top"

Instrument-Level Controls

Cycle-Level Controls

13. Behavioral / Discipline Rules

  1. Only long, never short: This system is exclusively for long trades. The math overwhelmingly favors longs in a bull market
  2. Patience is the primary virtue: True opportunities come only 1-2 times per year (spot) or 4-5 times per year (contracts, including short-term). Most of the time, the market is in random noise -- ignore it completely
  3. Do not regret missed moves: If the market moves without you, it is irrelevant. There will always be another opportunity. Chasing missed moves leads to emotional trading and losses
  4. Ignore irrelevant price action: The majority of market time is spent in meaningless oscillation. These moves, however large, are not your concern. Only act on signals that match your system
  5. Trade what you see, not what you predict: Build positions based on current reality, not imagined scenarios. "I always advise traders to start from current reality, not construct ideal models" (我总是建议交易者应该根据现实情况出发，而非虚构一套理想的准则)
  6. Emotional control via position sizing: If your position size causes emotional distress, it is too large. Reduce until you can watch the market move against you without anxiety
  7. Stand on the opposite side of the crowd's emotion: When the crowd is greedy, sell. When they are panicking, buy. "The emotional side always loses. I insist on standing on the opposite side of emotion" (情绪化的一方总是输家，我坚持站在情绪化的对立面)
  8. Do not pick fights about market direction in public forums: Use logic, not emotion. Let your P&L speak
  9. Accept that you cannot capture the full move: Capturing 20-30% of a 100x move is already extraordinary. "Impressive gains should come from hundreds of trades accumulated, not from a single trade" (夸张的收益不应该依托于一个交易机会，应是数百次交易累积起来)

14. Common Mistakes

  1. Buying the dip on coins going to zero (LUNA syndrome): LUNA at $0.0000001 had the same market cap as LUNA at $80 due to unlimited token inflation. Buying "cheap" without understanding tokenomics is fatal
  2. Being conservative in a bull market: "Once the bull market is clearly underway, strategy and position sizing must not be overly conservative. Being conservative becomes a sin" (保守将会是一种罪过)
  3. Trading without a time limit: Holding indefinitely hoping for recovery leads to catastrophic losses. Every position needs a time-based exit
  4. Trying to buy cheaper by entering early: "Earlier entry does not equal more advantageous entry" (更早的入场不等于更具有优势). Right-side breakout entries are superior because they provide immediate confirmation
  5. Shorting in a bull market: "Absolutely never use this method to short" (千万不能用来做空交易)
  6. Over-trading during noise: Real opportunities come 1-2 times per year. If you are trading every week, you are trading noise
  7. Failing to withdraw profits: Profits not withdrawn from the market eventually return to the market. Withdraw at least 50% at BTC ATH
  8. Treating crypto trading as not requiring a strategy: "Those who believe you don't need any strategy and can make money buying and selling randomly in a bull market -- the market will teach them a lesson" (2022年证明了这一点)
  9. Averaging down on losing contract positions: Contract losses mean the breakout failed. The margin is the maximum acceptable loss
  10. Buying altcoins before BTC confirms Phase 1: Altcoin season starts months after BTC's bull confirmation. Buying altcoins during BTC's bear market is premature and dangerous

15. Complete Trade Lifecycle Example — Spot

Trade: BTC Spot, November 2022 - April 2023

  1. Background: BTC monthly chart is in a secular uptrend (from monthly perspective, always bullish since 2009). Weekly chart is bearish but forming a potential bottom
  2. Sept-Oct 2022: Market sentiment is mixed (not extremely fearful). No signal -- do nothing
  3. Nov 6-9, 2022: FTX collapse triggers 28% crash in 4 days. Price plunges to ~$16,000
    • Signal 1: Weekly candle far below MA20 (cheap)
    • Signal 2: Price hits channel support line with massive volume
    • Signal 3: Rapid decline tests and holds the channel line
    • Sentiment confirmation: Funding rate hits -0.12% (unprecedented negative extreme); Open interest drops to rare low of $23-24B
  4. Mid-November 2022: Enter spot position in batches at average price ~$16,500. Position size: 50% of total capital
  5. Holding period: Price consolidates, slowly grinds upward. One intermediate reduction and re-addition during the holding period
  6. Early April 2023: BTC reaches $28,000. Time limit approaching (5 months held). Close entire position
  7. Result: +70% gain on position. "This is a respectable result" (这是不错的成绩)
  8. Forward projection: If the next two similar trades also return 70%, total compounded return = 5x. If held from $16,500 all the way to $80,000 (a single trade capturing the full move), that would be 5x -- but that is unrealistic and relies on luck, not skill. Steady accumulation over multiple trades is the sustainable approach

16. Complete Trade Lifecycle Example — Contract

Trade: LTC Contract Long, February 2021

  1. Background: BTC broke ATH in December 2020. All timeframes confirmed bullish. Phase 2 bull market in progress
  2. Setup: LTC daily chart shows a descending trendline from recent swing high. Price consolidating near 4-hour EMA288-338 support (Vegas tunnel)
  3. Feb 3, 2021: LTC breaks above descending trendline AND breaks above previous swing high simultaneously. Additional confirmation: 4-hour and 8-hour Vegas moving average support
  4. Entry: Go long at the breakout level (green horizontal line on chart, ~$135 area)
  5. Immediate result: Price stalls briefly at cost, then explodes upward -- no significant drawdown from entry
  6. Profit target: Original plan was $230. Price eventually reached that level
  7. Actual exit: Closed at ~$200 (before Chinese New Year holiday). Still profitable
  8. Key takeaway: Contract entries must produce immediate floating profit. The entry was right-side, breakout-confirmed, and the position was profitable within days

Trade: LUNA Contract Long, March 2021

  1. Background: Post-BTC-ATH, altcoin season underway
  2. Setup: LUNA formed a complex box consolidation (not a clean bull flag) after peaking on Feb 9 at ~$9
  3. Mar 5, 2021: Price breaks above the Feb 9 high by ~6%. Buy-stop order triggered a few percent above the previous high
  4. Entry: ~$9.50 area
  5. Result: Price stalled for 2 trading days at entry, then went vertical. +130% in 2 weeks from entry

17. Implementation Pseudocode

Bull Market Phase Detection

function detectBullPhase(btcWeekly, btcMonthly):
    # Phase 1: Trendline breakout
    trendlines = drawDescendingTrendlines(btcWeekly)
    latestTrendline = trendlines[-1]  # flattest/most recent

    if btcWeekly.close > latestTrendline.valueAt(now)
       AND btcWeekly.close > previousSwingHigh(btcWeekly):
        phase1_confirmed = true

    # Alternative Phase 1 confirmation
    if allTimeframeGoldenCross(btcWeekly, MAs=[30, 60, 120]):
        phase1_confirmed = true

    # Phase 2: ATH breakout
    if btcWeekly.close > allTimeHigh(btcMonthly):
        phase2_confirmed = true

    return { phase1_confirmed, phase2_confirmed }

Spot Entry Decision

function evaluateSpotEntry(btcWeekly, btcDaily):
    if NOT phase1_confirmed:
        return NO_TRADE

    conditions_met = 0

    # Condition 1: Price far below MA20 on weekly
    if btcWeekly.close < btcWeekly.MA20 * 0.85:
        conditions_met += 1

    # Condition 2: Massive volume at key support
    if btcWeekly.volume > 2 * averageVolume(btcWeekly, 20)
       AND btcWeekly.low <= nearestSupport(btcWeekly):
        conditions_met += 1

    # Condition 3: Rapid test of channel/support line holds
    if channelLineTest(btcWeekly) AND NOT brokenBelow:
        conditions_met += 1

    # Sentiment confirmation (secondary)
    sentiment_score = 0
    if fundingRate < -0.03:
        sentiment_score += 1
    if openInterest < historicalLow(openInterest, 365):
        sentiment_score += 1

    if conditions_met >= 2 AND sentiment_score >= 1:
        return ENTER_LONG_SPOT(size=0.50 * totalCapital)
    elif conditions_met >= 3:
        return ENTER_LONG_SPOT(size=0.50 * totalCapital)
    else:
        return NO_TRADE

Contract Entry Decision

function evaluateContractEntry(coin, daily, fourHour):
    if NOT (phase1_confirmed OR phase2_confirmed):
        return NO_TRADE

    # Mode 1: Trendline breakout
    trendline = findDescendingTrendline(daily)
    prevHigh = previousSwingHigh(daily)

    if daily.close > trendline.valueAt(now)
       AND daily.close > prevHigh:
        stopLoss = max(trendline.valueAt(now), prevHigh) - 3 * ATR(daily, 20)
        return ENTER_LONG_CONTRACT(stopLoss)

    # Mode 2: Previous high breakout
    ath = allTimeHigh(daily)
    if daily.close > ath * 1.03:  # few percent above
        stopLoss = ath - 2 * ATR(daily, 20)
        return ENTER_LONG_CONTRACT(stopLoss)

    return NO_TRADE

Position Management Loop

function managePosition(position):
    daysSinceEntry = now - position.entryDate

    # Time-based exit (spot)
    if position.type == SPOT AND daysSinceEntry > 150:
        return CLOSE_POSITION("time limit reached")

    # Time-based exit (contract)
    if position.type == CONTRACT AND daysSinceEntry > 60:
        return CLOSE_POSITION("max contract hold time")

    # Trail stop on contracts
    if position.type == CONTRACT AND position.floatingProfit > 0:
        newStop = mostRecentHigherLow(position.chart)
        if newStop > position.stopLoss:
            position.stopLoss = newStop

    # Stop-loss check
    if position.chart.close < position.stopLoss:
        return CLOSE_POSITION("stop loss hit")

    # ATR-based emergency stop (contracts)
    if position.type == CONTRACT:
        adverseMove = position.entryPrice - position.chart.close
        if adverseMove > 3 * ATR(position.chart, 20):
            return CLOSE_POSITION("3x ATR adverse move")

    # Phase transition profit-taking
    if phase2_confirmed AND position.instrument == BTC:
        return CLOSE_POSITION("withdraw 50%+ profits, rotate to altcoins")

    return HOLD

Altcoin Screening

function screenAltcoins():
    candidates = []
    allCoins = getTop50ByMarketCap()

    for coin in allCoins:
        if coin.isStablecoin OR coin.isWrappedBTC:
            continue

        # Volume filter
        if NOT consistentlyActiveVolume(coin, days=90):
            continue

        # Relative strength filter
        if btcLastCorrection.drawdown > 20%:
            coinDrawdown = coin.drawdownDuringSamePeriod
            if coinDrawdown < btcLastCorrection.drawdown * 0.5:
                candidates.append(coin, priority=HIGH)
            elif coinDrawdown < btcLastCorrection.drawdown:
                candidates.append(coin, priority=MEDIUM)

    # Also check bear-market-listed coins
    for coin in bearMarketListings:
        if coin.stillTrading AND coin.communityActive AND coin.healthyChart:
            candidates.append(coin, priority=WATCHLIST)

    return candidates.sortBy(priority)

18. Key Quotes

"利弗莫尔的操作手法总结来说就是——在上涨趋势中才开始买入，在下跌趋势中才开始做空。初听似乎是一句废话，入行许多年后感触越来越深，深感这才是交易之道。"

"Livermore's method, in summary, is simply this: buy only in uptrends, short only in downtrends. At first it sounds like a platitude, but after many years in the business, I feel it more and more deeply -- this truly is the way of trading."

"当市场明确进入牛市之后，交易策略和仓位则不能太过保守，保守将会是一种罪过。"

"Once the market has clearly entered a bull market, the trading strategy and position sizing must not be overly conservative. Being conservative becomes a sin."

"牛市的第二阶段是用来扩大第一阶段的利润的。"

"Phase 2 of the bull market exists to multiply the profits of Phase 1."

"情绪化的一方总是输家，我坚持站在情绪化的对立面。"

"The emotional side is always the loser. I insist on standing on the opposite side of emotion."

"失之毫厘谬以千里。如果这几年时间犯了一次大的错误，五倍八倍的收益就会退回三四倍左右，如果犯了两次原则性错误收益就变得寥寥无几。"

"A small deviation leads to a huge miss. If you make one major mistake over these few years, 5-8x gains retreat to 3-4x. Two principled errors and your gains become negligible."

"如果进而错过了整个牛市的话，十年之后我们都将会感觉到遗憾。"

"If you miss the entire bull market because of it, you will feel regret for the next ten years."

"夸张的收益不应该依托于一个交易机会，应是数百次交易累积起来。"

"Extraordinary returns should not rely on a single trade opportunity, but be accumulated over hundreds of trades."

"我只管做正确的事情，收益多少交给天意。"

"I only concern myself with doing the right thing. How much profit comes is left to fate."

"不要试图抢占更便宜的筹码，价格便宜不等于交易更有优势。"

"Do not try to grab cheaper chips. A cheaper price does not mean a more advantageous trade."

"逃顶是水到渠成的事情。"

"Escaping the top happens naturally as a matter of course."

"真正有效的交易方法都是很简单的，感觉到操作很困难，通常也是无法实现盈利。"

"Truly effective trading methods are all very simple. If it feels difficult to execute, you usually cannot achieve profitability."

"群众贪婪时我们卖出，群众恐慌时我们买入。"

"When the crowd is greedy, we sell. When the crowd is panicking, we buy."