作者:Martin J. Pring

Technical Analysis Explained — Complete Implementation Specification

Based on Martin J. Pring, Technical Analysis Explained (5th Edition, 2014)


Table of Contents

  1. Overview
  2. Pring's Market Cycle Model: The Six Stages
  3. The KST Indicator: Know Sure Thing
  4. Moving Averages
  5. Momentum Indicators
  6. Volume Analysis
  7. Chart Patterns
  8. Relative Strength Analysis
  9. Breadth Indicators
  10. Intermarket Analysis
  11. Entry and Exit Rules
  12. Risk Management
  13. Common Mistakes
  14. Complete Trade Lifecycle Example
  15. Key Quotes

1. Overview

1.1 Who Is Martin J. Pring?

Martin J. Pring is among the most widely read technical analysis educators in the world. He founded Pring Research and the Intermarket Review newsletter, authored more than a dozen books, and has been a featured speaker at technical analysis conferences for over four decades. His work bridges the gap between classical charting, momentum analysis, and intermarket relationships — a combination that makes Technical Analysis Explained one of the most comprehensive single-volume treatments of the discipline ever published.

The first edition appeared in 1979. The fifth edition (2014) expands the original work to over 800 pages, incorporating decades of refinement to Pring's indicators and cycle model. The book has been a standard textbook for the CMT (Chartered Market Technician) exam since its inception.

1.2 The Core Thesis

Pring's central argument rests on three pillars:

1. Markets move in cycles driven by the business cycle.
   Bonds, stocks, and commodities peak and trough in a predictable sequence.

2. Trend identification is the primary task.
   Every indicator — moving average, momentum oscillator, volume metric —
   exists to answer one question: What is the direction of the prevailing trend?

3. Confirmation across multiple timeframes and indicators reduces false signals.
   No single indicator is reliable in isolation. The weight of the evidence,
   gathered from price, momentum, volume, and breadth, determines the
   probability of a trend continuing or reversing.

Pring does not promise a mechanical system that removes judgment. He offers a structured framework for organizing the flood of market data into actionable conclusions.

1.3 Three Timeframes

Pring insists that every analysis must specify the timeframe under consideration:

Timeframe Typical Duration Primary Tool
Short-term 3–6 weeks Daily charts, short-term KST
Intermediate 6 weeks – 9 months Weekly charts, intermediate KST
Long-term 9 months – 2+ years Monthly charts, long-term KST

A bullish signal on a daily chart occurring within a bearish intermediate trend is far less reliable than one aligned with both the intermediate and long-term trends. Pring calls this principle the direction of the main trend is the single most important factor.

1.4 The Weight of the Evidence

Pring repeatedly emphasizes that no indicator should be used alone. His approach aggregates signals from multiple independent sources:

Evidence Categories:
- Price trend (moving average direction, trendline integrity)
- Momentum (KST, RSI, MACD, ROC — divergences and crossovers)
- Volume (confirming price moves, detecting distribution/accumulation)
- Breadth (advance-decline line, new highs vs. new lows)
- Relative strength (sector rotation, leadership analysis)
- Intermarket (bond/stock/commodity sequence within the business cycle)

When a majority of these categories align, the probability of a correct trade is materially higher. Pring calls this convergence "the weight of the evidence" — a phrase that appears dozens of times throughout the book.


2. Pring's Market Cycle Model: The Six Stages

2.1 The Business Cycle and Financial Markets

Pring's most distinctive contribution to technical analysis is his six-stage market cycle model, which maps the sequential behavior of bonds, stocks, and commodities across the business cycle. The model is rooted in a simple observation: each asset class responds to the business cycle at a different phase.

Business Cycle Sequence (idealized):

  Economy contracting → Bonds bottom first (falling rates help bonds)
  Economy still weak   → Stocks bottom next (discounting future recovery)
  Economy recovering   → Commodities bottom last (real demand picks up)
  Economy expanding    → Bonds peak first (rising rates hurt bonds)
  Economy still strong → Stocks peak next (discounting future slowdown)
  Economy overheating  → Commodities peak last (last surge of demand)

This sequence produces six distinct stages, each defined by which asset classes are rising or falling.

2.2 The Six Stages Defined

Stage 1: Only bonds are rising. Stocks and commodities are still falling.
         → Economy is in recession. Interest rates are declining.
         → Bonds have bottomed and turned up. Stocks and commodities
           have not yet responded.

Stage 2: Bonds and stocks are both rising. Commodities are still falling.
         → Economy is beginning to recover. Liquidity is improving.
         → Stocks have bottomed and joined bonds in an uptrend.

Stage 3: All three — bonds, stocks, and commodities — are rising.
         → Economy is in full recovery. This is the most bullish stage.
         → Commodities have bottomed and joined the rally.

Stage 4: Only stocks and commodities are rising. Bonds have peaked and are falling.
         → Economy is expanding. Inflation pressures are building.
         → Rising rates are hurting bonds. Stocks still benefit from earnings growth.

Stage 5: Only commodities are rising. Bonds and stocks are both falling.
         → Economy is overheating. Inflation is accelerating.
         → Stocks have peaked. Bonds continue to decline.

Stage 6: All three are falling.
         → Economy is contracting. This is the most bearish stage.
         → Commodities have finally peaked. Recession is underway or imminent.

2.3 Stage Identification Rules

Pring uses the long-term KST indicator (see Section 3) applied to each asset class to determine whether that class is in an uptrend or downtrend. The operational rules:

Asset class is RISING if:
  - Its long-term KST is above its signal line, OR
  - Its long-term KST is rising and has crossed above zero

Asset class is FALLING if:
  - Its long-term KST is below its signal line, OR
  - Its long-term KST is falling and has crossed below zero

By classifying each of the three asset classes (bonds, stocks, commodities) as rising or falling, the current stage is identified from the six-stage framework.

2.4 Practical Implications of Each Stage

Stage Bonds Stocks Commodities Optimal Strategy
1 Up Down Down Buy bonds. Avoid stocks. Avoid commodities.
2 Up Up Down Buy stocks aggressively. Hold bonds.
3 Up Up Up Hold everything. Maximum bullish exposure.
4 Down Up Up Sell bonds. Ride stocks cautiously. Buy commod.
5 Down Down Up Sell stocks. Hold commodities. Short bonds.
6 Down Down Down Raise cash. Defensive posture. Wait for Stage 1.

2.5 Chronological Clock Analogy

Pring uses a clock analogy to visualize the cycle:

        12 o'clock = Stage 3 (everything rising, peak optimism)
         6 o'clock = Stage 6 (everything falling, peak pessimism)

  10-11 o'clock = Stage 2 (stocks joining bonds in rally)
   1-2  o'clock = Stage 4 (bonds peaking, inflation rising)
   3-4  o'clock = Stage 5 (stocks peaking, commodities still strong)
   7-8  o'clock = Stage 1 (bonds bottoming, recession)

The cycle is not mechanically timed — stages can last weeks or years depending on economic conditions — but the sequence is remarkably consistent across decades of data.


3. The KST Indicator: Know Sure Thing

3.1 Rationale

The KST (Know Sure Thing) is Pring's signature indicator and his most original contribution to technical analysis. Its purpose is to identify the trend of a given timeframe by combining multiple rates of change (ROC) spanning different lookback periods.

The core insight: a single ROC oscillator is noisy and produces many whipsaws. By combining four ROC calculations of different lengths and weighting the longer ones more heavily, the KST filters out short-term noise while still responding to genuine trend changes. The name "Know Sure Thing" is deliberately ironic — Pring acknowledges that no indicator provides certainty, but the KST comes closer to capturing the "sure thing" of a confirmed trend reversal than any single momentum measure.

3.2 Construction

The KST is built in three steps:

Step 1: Calculate four rates of change (ROC) over different periods.

ROC(n) = ((Close - Close_n_periods_ago) / Close_n_periods_ago) * 100

Step 2: Smooth each ROC with a simple moving average (SMA).

Smoothed_ROC_1 = SMA(ROC(period_1), smoothing_1)
Smoothed_ROC_2 = SMA(ROC(period_2), smoothing_2)
Smoothed_ROC_3 = SMA(ROC(period_3), smoothing_3)
Smoothed_ROC_4 = SMA(ROC(period_4), smoothing_4)

Step 3: Combine with ascending weights.

KST = (Smoothed_ROC_1 * weight_1)
    + (Smoothed_ROC_2 * weight_2)
    + (Smoothed_ROC_3 * weight_3)
    + (Smoothed_ROC_4 * weight_4)

Signal Line = SMA(KST, signal_period)

3.3 Parameter Sets for Three Timeframes

Pring specifies default parameters for each timeframe:

Short-Term KST (daily data):

Component ROC Period SMA Smoothing Weight
ROC 1 10 10 1
ROC 2 15 10 2
ROC 3 20 10 3
ROC 4 30 15 4
Signal 9

Intermediate-Term KST (weekly data):

Component ROC Period SMA Smoothing Weight
ROC 1 10 10 1
ROC 2 13 13 2
ROC 3 15 15 3
ROC 4 20 20 4
Signal 9

Long-Term KST (monthly data):

Component ROC Period SMA Smoothing Weight
ROC 1 9 6 1
ROC 2 12 6 2
ROC 3 18 6 3
ROC 4 24 9 4
Signal 9

3.4 Interpretation Rules

Signal line crossovers:

BUY signal:  KST crosses ABOVE its signal line.
SELL signal: KST crosses BELOW its signal line.

Zero line crossovers:

Bullish confirmation: KST crosses above zero → trend has turned positive.
Bearish confirmation: KST crosses below zero → trend has turned negative.

Divergences (the most powerful signals):

Bullish divergence: Price makes a lower low, but KST makes a higher low.
  → Momentum is weakening on the downside. Potential bottom forming.

Bearish divergence: Price makes a higher high, but KST makes a lower high.
  → Momentum is weakening on the upside. Potential top forming.

Overbought/Oversold:

The KST is unbounded (unlike RSI), so overbought/oversold levels must be calibrated to each security's historical range. Pring recommends drawing horizontal reference lines at levels that have historically coincided with reversals.

3.5 Multi-Timeframe KST Analysis

The highest-conviction signals occur when all three KST timeframes align:

Maximum bullish:  Long-term KST rising + Intermediate KST rising + Short-term KST buy signal
Maximum bearish:  Long-term KST falling + Intermediate KST falling + Short-term KST sell signal

Caution zone:     Short-term KST gives a buy signal, but long-term KST is falling.
                  → Counter-trend rally likely. Reduce position size or skip entirely.

4. Moving Averages

4.1 Pring's Preferred Moving Averages

Pring uses simple moving averages (SMAs) as his primary trend-identification tool. He acknowledges exponential moving averages but prefers SMAs for their conceptual clarity and the fact that they are the most widely followed by market participants.

Key periods by timeframe:

Short-term:        10-day, 25-day, 30-day SMA
Intermediate-term: 40-week (200-day), 65-day SMA
Long-term:         12-month, 24-month SMA

The 200-day (40-week) SMA is the single most important moving average in Pring's framework. It serves as the dividing line between bull and bear markets.

4.2 Moving Average Crossover Rules

Golden Cross: Short-term MA crosses above long-term MA → bullish.
Death Cross:  Short-term MA crosses below long-term MA → bearish.

Pring's refinement: The crossover is only valid if the longer MA is also
moving in the direction of the crossover.
  - Golden Cross is valid only if the 200-day SMA is flat or rising.
  - Death Cross is valid only if the 200-day SMA is flat or falling.

4.3 Moving Average Envelopes

Pring uses percentage envelopes around moving averages to identify overbought/oversold conditions:

Upper envelope = MA * (1 + percentage)
Lower envelope = MA * (1 - percentage)

Typical envelope widths:
  - 200-day SMA: +/- 10% for stocks
  - 40-week SMA:  +/- 15% for volatile markets
  - Narrower envelopes for short-term MAs

Prices touching or exceeding the envelope boundaries suggest the trend is overextended and vulnerable to a mean-reverting correction.


5. Momentum Indicators

5.1 Rate of Change (ROC)

The simplest momentum indicator and the building block for the KST:

ROC = ((Close_today - Close_n_periods_ago) / Close_n_periods_ago) * 100

Pring's usage:

5.2 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Standard construction (Appel's original):

MACD Line   = 12-period EMA - 26-period EMA
Signal Line = 9-period EMA of MACD Line
Histogram   = MACD Line - Signal Line

Pring's interpretation:

5.3 RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Wilder's 14-period RSI, as used by Pring:

RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
RS  = Average Gain over n periods / Average Loss over n periods

Pring's rules:

5.4 Stochastic Oscillator

Lane's stochastic, as Pring applies it:

%K = ((Close - Lowest Low_n) / (Highest High_n - Lowest Low_n)) * 100
%D = 3-period SMA of %K

Typical periods: n = 14, 21, or 5 depending on timeframe.

Pring's rules:

5.5 Combining Momentum Indicators

Pring's framework for momentum:

Strong buy signal:  KST buy + MACD buy + RSI rising from oversold + Stochastic buy
  → Multiple independent indicators confirming the same message.

Weak/suspect signal: Only one or two indicators triggering.
  → Proceed with caution. Reduce position size.

Conflicting signals: Some indicators bullish, others bearish.
  → Step aside. Wait for clarity.

6. Volume Analysis

6.1 Core Volume Principles

Pring follows the classical volume interpretation rules:

Rule 1: Volume should expand in the direction of the prevailing trend.
  - In an uptrend, volume should be heavier on up days and lighter on down days.
  - In a downtrend, volume should be heavier on down days and lighter on up days.

Rule 2: Volume leads price.
  - Declining volume during an advance warns that the trend is losing conviction.
  - Rising volume during a decline warns of aggressive selling and potential capitulation.

Rule 3: Volume climaxes often mark turning points.
  - A blowoff top: extremely high volume on a final surge → exhaustion.
  - A selling climax: extremely high volume on a final plunge → capitulation.

6.2 On-Balance Volume (OBV)

If Close > Previous Close: OBV = Previous OBV + Volume
If Close < Previous Close: OBV = Previous OBV - Volume
If Close = Previous Close: OBV = Previous OBV

Pring's interpretation:

6.3 Volume Rate of Change

Pring applies ROC to volume itself to detect unusual volume surges:

Volume ROC = ((Volume_today - Volume_n_periods_ago) / Volume_n_periods_ago) * 100

Spikes in volume ROC at support or resistance levels are significant. They indicate strong conviction behind the price move and increase the probability that the level will hold or break decisively.

6.4 Demand Index and Volume Oscillators

Pring also discusses the demand index and various volume oscillators that compare up-volume to down-volume. The principle remains constant: volume must confirm price for a trend to be considered reliable. When volume fails to confirm, the weight of the evidence shifts against the prevailing trend.


7. Chart Patterns

7.1 Pring's Classification

Pring divides patterns into two categories:

Reversal Patterns (signal a trend change):
  - Head and Shoulders (and inverse)
  - Double and Triple Tops/Bottoms
  - Rounding Tops/Bottoms (saucers)
  - Broadening Formations
  - Diamond Tops

Continuation Patterns (signal a pause before trend resumes):
  - Triangles (symmetrical, ascending, descending)
  - Flags and Pennants
  - Rectangles
  - Wedges

7.2 Measuring Implications

Pring teaches the standard measuring technique for each pattern:

Head and Shoulders:
  Target = Neckline ± (Head - Neckline distance)

Double Top/Bottom:
  Target = Breakout point ± (Pattern height)

Triangle:
  Target = Breakout point ± (Widest part of triangle)

Flag/Pennant:
  Target = Breakout point + (Flagpole length)

These are minimum price objectives. Pring stresses that the actual move may exceed the measured target significantly, especially when the weight of the evidence supports the direction.

7.3 Volume Confirmation for Patterns

Head and Shoulders Top:
  - Volume highest on left shoulder.
  - Volume lower on head.
  - Volume lowest on right shoulder.
  - Volume expands on neckline break.

Triangles:
  - Volume contracts as the triangle forms.
  - Volume expands on the breakout.
  - Low-volume breakouts are suspect and prone to failure.

Flags/Pennants:
  - Volume contracts during the flag formation.
  - Volume surges on the continuation breakout.

7.4 Pattern Failures

Pring explicitly addresses pattern failures — breakouts that reverse quickly:

A failed pattern is itself a powerful signal in the opposite direction.
If a head-and-shoulders top breaks the neckline but immediately rallies back above it,
the failed breakdown becomes a strong bullish signal. The trapped shorts must cover,
adding fuel to the rally.

8. Relative Strength Analysis

8.1 Construction

Relative strength (RS) compares one security's performance to a benchmark:

RS = Price of Security / Price of Benchmark (e.g., S&P 500)

If RS is rising → the security is outperforming the benchmark.
If RS is falling → the security is underperforming the benchmark.

8.2 Pring's RS Interpretation

Rule 1: Buy stocks whose RS line is in an uptrend.
         These are outperformers — they will rise more in bull markets
         and decline less in bear markets.

Rule 2: Avoid or short stocks whose RS line is in a downtrend.
         These are underperformers — they have a structural weakness.

Rule 3: RS trend changes often precede price trend changes.
         If RS starts deteriorating while price is still rising,
         the stock is losing its leadership position.

Rule 4: Apply the same technical tools to the RS line itself.
         Moving averages, trendlines, and chart patterns on the RS line
         are valid and often lead price signals.

8.3 Sector Rotation and Relative Strength

Pring ties RS analysis directly to his six-stage cycle model. Different sectors lead at different stages:

Stage 1-2: Interest-rate-sensitive sectors lead (utilities, financials, REITs).
Stage 2-3: Consumer cyclicals and technology begin to outperform.
Stage 3-4: Basic materials and industrials take the lead.
Stage 4-5: Energy and commodities are the last to peak.
Stage 5-6: Defensive sectors (healthcare, staples) hold up best as the market declines.

Monitoring sector RS lines helps confirm which stage the market is in and which sectors to emphasize or avoid.


9. Breadth Indicators

9.1 Advance-Decline Line

A/D Line = Cumulative sum of (Advancing Issues - Declining Issues)

Pring's rules:

9.2 New Highs vs. New Lows

NH-NL = Number of stocks making new 52-week highs - Number making new 52-week lows

9.3 Percentage of Stocks Above Their Moving Average

% Above 200-day MA: Broad measure of long-term trend health.
% Above 50-day MA:  Intermediate-term breadth.

Overbought: > 80% above MA (vulnerable to correction).
Oversold:   < 20% above MA (potential for rebound).

Pring uses these as confirming indicators rather than standalone signals. Extreme readings combined with momentum divergences produce high-confidence reversal signals.

9.4 McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index

Pring discusses these advanced breadth tools:

McClellan Oscillator = 19-day EMA of (Advances - Declines) - 39-day EMA of (Advances - Declines)
McClellan Summation Index = Cumulative sum of McClellan Oscillator

Summation Index > 0 → bullish breadth environment.
Summation Index < 0 → bearish breadth environment.

10. Intermarket Analysis

10.1 The Four Markets

Pring's intermarket framework monitors four interconnected markets:

1. Dollar (U.S. Dollar Index)
2. Bonds (Treasury bonds / interest rates)
3. Stocks (S&P 500, broad indexes)
4. Commodities (CRB Index, gold, oil)

10.2 Key Intermarket Relationships

Bonds and Interest Rates:
  - Inverse relationship. Rising rates → falling bond prices.
  - Bond market peaks/troughs typically lead stock market peaks/troughs.

Stocks and Bonds:
  - Generally move together in the early/mid business cycle.
  - Diverge in late cycle: bonds fall (rising rates) while stocks rise (earnings).
  - When bonds have been falling for an extended period, stocks become vulnerable.

Commodities and Bonds:
  - Generally inverse. Rising commodities → inflationary pressure → falling bonds.
  - This is the primary mechanism driving the Stage 4 → Stage 5 transition.

Dollar and Commodities:
  - Generally inverse. Strong dollar → weak commodity prices and vice versa.
  - Dollar strength/weakness helps confirm commodity cycle turns.

10.3 Intermarket Confirmation in Practice

Bullish intermarket setup:
  - Bonds rising (rates falling)
  - Dollar stabilizing or falling
  - Commodities bottoming
  - Stocks showing positive breadth divergences
  → Aligns with Stage 2 entry conditions.

Bearish intermarket setup:
  - Bonds falling (rates rising) for extended period
  - Commodities surging (inflation)
  - Breadth deteriorating despite index strength
  → Aligns with Stage 5, approaching Stage 6.

11. Entry and Exit Rules

11.1 Entry Criteria (Long Positions)

Pring does not provide a rigid mechanical system, but his framework implies the following synthesis:

Primary conditions (all should be met):
  1. Market cycle is in Stage 2 or Stage 3 (bonds and stocks rising).
  2. The stock's price is above its 200-day SMA, and the SMA is rising.
  3. The intermediate KST has given a buy signal (crossed above signal line).
  4. Volume confirms the uptrend (expanding on advances, contracting on pullbacks).

Secondary conditions (at least two should be met):
  5. Short-term KST triggers a buy signal in the direction of the intermediate trend.
  6. A bullish chart pattern has completed (breakout above resistance with volume).
  7. The stock's RS line is in an uptrend vs. the market.
  8. Breadth indicators confirm market strength (A/D line rising, new highs expanding).

Entry trigger:
  - Buy on a pullback to the rising 50-day SMA after conditions are met, OR
  - Buy on a breakout above a chart pattern with volume confirmation.

11.2 Exit Criteria (Long Positions)

Mandatory exit signals (any one triggers a sell):
  1. Intermediate KST crosses below its signal line.
  2. Price closes decisively below the 200-day SMA.
  3. A major reversal pattern completes (e.g., head-and-shoulders neckline break).

Warning signals (begin tightening stops):
  4. Bearish divergence between price and any two momentum indicators.
  5. Volume declining on rallies while expanding on declines.
  6. RS line breaking its uptrend.
  7. Market cycle transitioning from Stage 3 to Stage 4 (bonds turning down).

11.3 Short Entry Criteria

Primary conditions:
  1. Market cycle is in Stage 5 or Stage 6.
  2. Price is below its 200-day SMA, and the SMA is falling.
  3. Intermediate KST has given a sell signal.

Entry trigger:
  - Short on a rally to the declining 50-day SMA, OR
  - Short on a breakdown below a chart pattern (head-and-shoulders, descending triangle).

12. Risk Management

12.1 Stop-Loss Placement

Pring advocates stops placed at technically significant levels:

For long positions:
  - Below the most recent swing low.
  - Below the 200-day SMA (if price is near it).
  - Below the neckline of a completed bullish pattern.
  - Below the lower boundary of a trend channel.

For short positions:
  - Above the most recent swing high.
  - Above the 200-day SMA (if price is near it).
  - Above the neckline of a completed bearish pattern.

12.2 Position Sizing

Pring does not prescribe a specific position-sizing formula, but his framework implies:

Full position:   All primary and multiple secondary conditions are met.
                 Cycle stage is favorable. Weight of evidence is strong.

Half position:   Primary conditions are met, but secondary conditions
                 are mixed. Some indicators are conflicting.

No position:     Primary conditions are not met, regardless of how
                 attractive the chart "looks."

12.3 The Principle of Proportionality

The magnitude of a price move is typically proportional to the duration
of the preceding consolidation or reversal pattern.

  - Long base → large rally.
  - Brief consolidation → limited continuation.
  - The longer an indicator stays in overbought/oversold territory,
    the more powerful the eventual reversal.

13. Common Mistakes

13.1 Indicator Worship

Mistake: Treating a single indicator as infallible.
Fix:     No indicator works all the time. Use the weight of the evidence.
         If four indicators say buy and one says sell, the odds favor buying —
         but the dissenting indicator deserves attention as a risk factor.

13.2 Ignoring the Primary Trend

Mistake: Taking short-term buy signals during a long-term downtrend
         and expecting a full-sized rally.
Fix:     Counter-trend signals are inherently lower-probability.
         The primary (long-term) trend defines the field of play.
         Short-term signals should be used to enter positions aligned
         with the intermediate and long-term trends.

13.3 Over-Optimization

Mistake: Endlessly tweaking indicator parameters to fit past data perfectly.
Fix:     The best parameters are those that have worked across multiple markets
         and time periods, not those that happen to fit the last 6 months.
         Pring's KST defaults are the product of decades of testing precisely
         because they are robust, not optimized.

13.4 Ignoring Volume

Mistake: Analyzing price without considering volume.
Fix:     A breakout on thin volume is suspect. A rally with declining volume
         is losing conviction. Volume is the fuel — without it, price moves
         are unreliable.

13.5 Forcing a Cycle Stage Identification

Mistake: Insisting that the market "must be" in a particular stage because
         you want to take a particular trade.
Fix:     Sometimes the cycle stage is ambiguous. When the evidence is unclear,
         the correct action is to do nothing. Cash is a position.

13.6 Confusing Relative Strength with Absolute Strength

Mistake: Buying a stock because its RS line is rising, without noticing
         that the stock itself is falling (just falling less than the market).
Fix:     RS analysis identifies outperformers and underperformers.
         A rising RS line during a bear market means the stock is losing
         less — not that it is a buy. Absolute trend must still be up.

14. Complete Trade Lifecycle Example

14.1 Setup: Early 2003 Bull Market

Context:
  - October 2002: S&P 500 has been in a bear market for 2.5 years.
  - Bonds have been rising throughout 2002 (rates falling).
  - Commodities (CRB Index) bottomed in late 2001 and are rising modestly.

Cycle Stage Assessment:
  - Bonds: Rising → UP
  - Stocks: Still falling → DOWN
  - Commodities: Rising → UP
  → This does not fit a clean six-stage template (bonds and commodities up,
    stocks down). Pring would note this as a transitional period.

March 2003:
  - Stocks form a double bottom pattern (October 2002 low retested).
  - Long-term KST for the S&P 500 flattens and begins to curl upward.
  - Intermediate KST gives a buy signal (crosses above signal line).
  - Breadth: A/D line diverges positively from the price low.
  - Volume: Selling climax in March followed by declining volume on pullbacks.

14.2 Entry

Signal:    Intermediate KST buy signal + double bottom completion + breadth divergence.
Entry:     Buy S&P 500 (or strong-RS stocks) on the breakout above the double bottom neckline.
           Assume entry at S&P 500 = 880.
Stop-loss: Below the double bottom low at 800. Risk = 80 points (9.1%).

14.3 Management

April-June 2003:
  - Price rallies above the 200-day SMA for the first time in over a year.
  - Short-term KST gives intermittent buy signals on pullbacks.
  - Volume expands on rallies, contracts on pullbacks → healthy.
  - RS analysis: Technology and consumer discretionary sectors leading.
  → Move stop to breakeven (880) after price clears the 200-day SMA.

July-December 2003:
  - Long-term KST crosses above zero → confirmed long-term trend change.
  - Cycle stage clearly transitions to Stage 2, then Stage 3.
  - A/D line making new highs → breadth confirms.
  → Trail stop to below the most recent swing low, approximately 1000.

14.4 Exit

Early 2004:
  - S&P 500 reaches ~1150.
  - Intermediate KST begins to flatten, eventually crosses below signal line.
  - First partial exit: sell half the position at ~1130.
  - Short-term KST gives a sell signal.
  - Full exit at ~1100 as the intermediate pullback deepens.

Result:
  Entry: 880
  Exit:  Average ~1115
  Profit: ~235 points (26.7%)
  Risk taken: 80 points
  Reward/Risk: 2.9:1

16. Key Quotes

"The technical approach to investment is essentially a reflection of the idea that prices move in trends that are determined by the changing attitudes of investors toward a variety of economic, monetary, political, and psychological forces."

"The art of technical analysis — for it is an art — is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed."

"It is a cardinal sin in technical analysis to use only one indicator. The weight of the evidence is the key concept."

"The KST was designed to identify meaningful turns in stock market cycles by measuring the rate of change in prices over four different time spans, smoothing each, and weighting them in proportion to their cycle length."

"Volume goes with the trend. In a rising market, volume should expand on rallies and contract on declines. In a falling market, volume should expand on declines and contract on rallies. Violations of this principle warn that the prevailing trend may be about to reverse."

"Markets peak when there is no one left to buy, and they bottom when there is no one left to sell. Breadth indicators measure this exhaustion process far better than price alone."

"The most important single factor in technical analysis is the identification of the direction of the main trend. Indicators that move in the direction of the main trend should be respected; those that move against it should be treated with skepticism."

"Relative strength is probably the single most underutilized tool in the technician's arsenal. A stock that cannot outperform the market in a bull phase will almost certainly underperform in a bear phase."

"Intermarket relationships provide the context in which individual market analysis takes place. A technician who studies the stock market in isolation is like a doctor who takes a patient's temperature but ignores blood pressure, heart rate, and respiratory function."

"The sequence of bond, stock, and commodity peaks and troughs within the business cycle is one of the most reliable and useful relationships in all of financial market analysis."


End of implementation specification.