作者:梁信

The Power of Common Sense — Complete Implementation Specification

Based on Liang Xin (梁信), The Power of Common Sense (常识的力量) (2021)

Drawing on John Bogle's fundamental common sense (引用约翰·博格尔的基本常识), adapted for the Chinese capital market environment.


Table of Contents

  1. Overview
  2. The Common Sense Philosophy
  3. Index Investing in China
  4. Asset Allocation Framework
  5. Fund Selection Criteria
  6. Regular Investment Strategy (定投)
  7. Behavioral / Discipline Rules
  8. Risk Management
  9. Tax and Fee Optimization
  10. Common Mistakes
  11. Complete Portfolio Lifecycle Example
  12. Key Quotes / Principles

1. Overview

Liang Xin's The Power of Common Sense is a book that transplants the core philosophy of John C. Bogle — founder of Vanguard and champion of low-cost index investing — into the specific realities of China's A-share market. The central thesis is deceptively simple: most investors would achieve better long-term outcomes by owning broadly diversified, low-cost index funds and holding them with discipline, rather than chasing active fund managers, hot sectors, or short-term trading profits.

Why This Book Matters for Chinese Investors

Core Claim

The single most reliable way for ordinary Chinese investors to build wealth over a 20-30 year horizon is to invest regularly in low-cost, broad-market index funds, maintain a rational asset allocation, and resist the urge to trade or chase performance.


2. The Common Sense Philosophy

2.1 Markets Are Efficient Enough

2.2 Costs Matter Enormously

The Tyranny of Compounding Costs

Scenario Annual Return Annual Cost Net Return 100K over 30 Years
Index fund 10% 0.3% 9.7% ~1,558K
Average active fund 10% 1.5% 8.5% ~1,152K
High-cost active fund 10% 2.5% 7.5% ~875K

2.3 Simplicity Beats Complexity

2.4 Time in Market Beats Timing the Market

2.5 Reversion to the Mean


3. Index Investing in China

3.1 Available Index Funds

Major Broad-Market Indexes

Index Code Description Use Case
CSI 300 000300 Top 300 stocks by market cap (Shanghai + Shenzhen) Core large-cap allocation
CSI 500 000905 Stocks ranked 301-800 by market cap Mid-cap complement to CSI 300
SSE 50 000016 Top 50 stocks on Shanghai exchange Blue-chip / mega-cap exposure
ChiNext 399006 Growth/innovation board (Shenzhen) Growth tilt, higher volatility
CSI 1000 000852 Stocks ranked 801-1800 by market cap Small-cap exposure
CSI All-Share 000985 Broadest representation of A-shares Total market proxy

Sector / Thematic Indexes (use sparingly)

3.2 ETF vs Mutual Fund Implementation

Feature ETF (场内基金) Index Mutual Fund (场外基金)
Trading venue Exchange (via brokerage) Fund company / third-party platform
Pricing Real-time market price End-of-day NAV
Minimum investment ~100-200 shares Often 10 RMB or lower
Expense ratio Generally lower (0.15-0.5%) Slightly higher (0.4-0.6%)
DCA automation Manual or broker auto-buy Platform-supported auto-DCA
Liquidity Depends on trading volume Always redeemable at NAV
Dividend handling Cash distribution Often auto-reinvested

Recommendation: For DCA (定投) automation, index mutual funds via platforms like Tiantian Fund (天天基金) or Alipay (支付宝) are more convenient. For lump-sum or tactical allocations, ETFs offer lower costs and tighter spreads on major indexes.

3.3 Broad Market vs Sector Indexes

3.4 Historical Returns of Chinese Indexes

3.5 How China's Market Differs from the US

Characteristic China A-shares US Market
Investor composition ~80% retail turnover ~80-90% institutional
Daily turnover rate Very high Moderate
Volatility Higher Lower
Short selling Limited Widely available
Derivatives Limited (growing) Deep and liquid
IPO mechanism Approval-based Registration-based
T+1 settlement Yes (stocks) T+2 (moving to T+1)
Price limits +/-10% (main), +/-20% (ChiNext/STAR) None (circuit breakers)

Implications for index investors: Higher volatility means DCA is especially powerful (buying more units when prices drop). The retail-dominated structure creates more frequent mispricings that mean-revert, benefiting patient holders.


4. Asset Allocation Framework

4.1 Stocks vs Bonds vs Cash

The book advocates a simple three-asset framework as the foundation:

4.2 Age-Based Guidelines Adapted for China

A starting rule of thumb, adjusted for Chinese retirement context (statutory retirement age 60 for men, 55 for women, gradually increasing):

Equity allocation (%) = 110 - Age      (aggressive)
Equity allocation (%) = 100 - Age      (moderate)
Equity allocation (%) =  90 - Age      (conservative)
Age Range Moderate Equity % Bond % Notes
25-30 70-80% 20-30% Long horizon, maximize growth
30-40 60-70% 30-40% Peak earning years, stay aggressive
40-50 50-60% 40-50% Begin gradual de-risking
50-60 40-50% 50-60% Capital preservation increases
60+ 30-40% 60-70% Income focus, but maintain equity

China-specific adjustments:

4.3 Risk Tolerance Assessment

The book provides a simple self-assessment:

  1. If markets drop 30% tomorrow, would you: (a) buy more, (b) hold, (c) sell some, (d) sell all?
  2. What is your investment horizon? Less than 3 years = mostly bonds. 3-10 years = balanced. 10+ years = equity-heavy.
  3. How stable is your income? Volatile income (entrepreneur, commission-based) warrants more conservative allocation.
  4. Do you have adequate insurance and emergency fund? If no, fix this first.

4.4 The Role of Real Estate

4.5 International Diversification

QDII Funds (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor)

Hong Kong Stock Connect (沪港通/深港通)


5. Fund Selection Criteria

5.1 Expense Ratio as Primary Filter

5.2 Tracking Error for Index Funds

5.3 Fund Size and Liquidity

5.4 Manager Tenure (for Active Funds)

5.5 Avoiding "Star Fund Manager" Chasing


6. Regular Investment Strategy (定投)

6.1 Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Implementation

DCA (定期定额投资) is the book's most strongly recommended strategy for the majority of investors:

6.2 Fixed Schedule vs Value Averaging

Fixed DCA (定期定额)

Value Averaging (价值平均)

Enhanced DCA (智能定投)

6.3 Which Indexes to DCA Into

Recommended core DCA targets:

  1. CSI 300 Index Fund — the single most important holding.
  2. CSI 500 Index Fund — mid-cap complement for broader coverage.
  3. Optionally: an international index (S&P 500 or MSCI World via QDII).

Suggested split for a two-fund DCA:

Suggested split for a three-fund DCA:

6.4 When to Increase or Decrease DCA Amounts

6.5 Behavioral Benefits of Automated Investing


7. Behavioral / Discipline Rules

7.1 Don't Chase Hot Funds

7.2 Don't Panic Sell During Corrections

7.3 Ignore Short-Term Market Noise

7.4 Annual Rebalancing Discipline

7.5 The "Stay the Course" Mentality


8. Risk Management

8.1 Emergency Fund Before Investing

8.2 Insurance Before Investing

8.3 Leverage Avoidance

8.4 Concentration Risk in Single Stocks

8.5 Sequence-of-Returns Risk


9. Tax and Fee Optimization

9.1 Fee Comparison Across Fund Types

Fee Type Index Fund (ETF) Index Mutual Fund Active Equity Fund
Management fee (annual) 0.15-0.50% 0.40-0.60% 1.20-1.50%
Custodian fee (annual) 0.05-0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.15-0.25%
Subscription fee Brokerage comm. 0-0.15% (C-class) 0.10-1.50%
Redemption fee Brokerage comm. 0-0.50% 0-1.50%
Total annual drag ~0.20-0.60% ~0.50-0.80% ~1.50-2.50%

9.2 Subscription Fee Optimization

9.3 Tax Implications in China

9.4 Account Type Selection


10. Common Mistakes

10.1 Buying High, Selling Low (追涨杀跌)

The most prevalent and costly mistake. Chinese retail investors systematically buy after rallies and sell during drawdowns, earning far less than the funds they invest in.

10.2 Frequent Trading

10.3 Overconcentration in a Single Sector or Theme

10.4 Ignoring Fees

10.5 Stopping DCA During Bear Markets

10.6 Checking Prices Daily

10.7 Listening to "Experts" and Market Predictions

10.8 Treating Investing as Entertainment


11. Complete Portfolio Lifecycle Example

Profile: Zhang Wei, Age 30, Chinese Urban Professional

Starting conditions (age 30):

Phase 1: Foundation (Age 30-32)

  1. Build emergency fund to 75,000 RMB (6 months) — 6 months of saving.
  2. Begin DCA with 3,000 RMB/month:
    • CSI 300 Index Fund: 1,800 RMB/month (60%)
    • CSI 500 Index Fund: 900 RMB/month (30%)
    • S&P 500 QDII Fund: 300 RMB/month (10%)
  3. Invest initial lump sum of 50,000 RMB:
    • 35,000 RMB into CSI 300 Index Fund
    • 15,000 RMB into a short-to-medium bond fund
  4. Target allocation: 70% equity / 30% bonds.

Phase 2: Accumulation (Age 32-45)

  1. Increase DCA with each salary raise (aim to invest 20-30% of after-tax income).
  2. By age 35, monthly DCA: 5,000 RMB/month.
  3. By age 40, monthly DCA: 7,000 RMB/month.
  4. Annual rebalancing every January 1st:
    • If equity allocation exceeds 75%, sell equity funds and buy bond funds.
    • If equity allocation drops below 65%, sell bond funds and buy equity funds.
  5. Estimated portfolio at age 45 (assuming 8% average net equity return, 3% bond return): approximately 1,500,000-2,000,000 RMB.

Phase 3: Pre-Retirement De-Risking (Age 45-60)

  1. Gradually reduce equity allocation: target 50% equity / 50% bonds by age 55.
  2. Continue DCA but shift new contributions more toward bonds.
  3. At age 55: 40% equity / 60% bonds.
  4. Build a 2-3 year cash/short-bond buffer for early retirement spending.
  5. Estimated portfolio at age 60 (assuming continued contributions and moderate returns): approximately 4,000,000-6,000,000 RMB.

Phase 4: Retirement (Age 60+)

  1. Allocation: 30% equity / 70% bonds and cash.
  2. Withdraw 3-4% annually (adjusted for inflation) for living expenses.
  3. Draw from bonds/cash first during equity downturns; replenish from equity gains during up markets.
  4. Continue annual rebalancing.
  5. Portfolio should sustain 25-30 years of withdrawals with high probability.

13. Key Quotes / Principles

From Bogle (via Liang Xin's Translation and Commentary)

  1. "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack." Own the entire market through an index fund rather than trying to pick individual winners.

  2. "The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing." Daily price movements are noise. The signal is long-term earnings growth and dividends.

  3. "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy." Compound returns reward patience. Impulsive trading destroys wealth.

  4. "In investing, you get what you don't pay for." Every yuan saved in fees is a yuan that compounds for you, not for the fund company.

  5. "The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan." A simple portfolio executed with discipline beats an optimal portfolio that exists only on paper.

Liang Xin's Adaptations for China

  1. "The Chinese market rewards the patient even more than the American market, because retail-driven volatility creates deeper valleys for the DCA investor to exploit."

  2. "Your neighbor's stock tip is not a strategy. An index fund and a 20-year commitment is a strategy."

  3. "Common sense is not common practice. The gap between knowing and doing is where most investors lose their wealth."

  4. "The best time to start DCA was ten years ago. The second best time is today."

  5. "A fund manager who beats the index for three years is called a star. A fund manager who beats the index for twenty years barely exists."

The Ten Commandments of Common Sense Investing (Synthesized)

1.  Own the market — buy broad index funds.
2.  Minimize costs — every basis point matters.
3.  Automate your savings — set up DCA and forget it.
4.  Diversify across asset classes — stocks, bonds, international.
5.  Rebalance annually — buy low, sell high mechanically.
6.  Ignore predictions — no one knows where the market goes next.
7.  Stay the course — do not sell during downturns.
8.  Protect the foundation — emergency fund and insurance first.
9.  Never use leverage — borrowed money amplifies ruin.
10. Keep it simple — complexity is the enemy of execution.

Summary of Implementation Priorities

For the reader who wants a single-page action plan:

Priority Action Timeline
1 Build 6-month emergency fund Months 1-6
2 Secure adequate insurance Month 1
3 Open fund account (platform + broker) Month 1
4 Select CSI 300 + CSI 500 index funds Month 1
5 Set up monthly auto-DCA Month 2
6 Invest any lump sum per target alloc Month 2
7 Set annual rebalancing calendar date Month 2
8 Add international index fund (QDII) Month 3-6
9 Increase DCA with every salary raise Ongoing
10 Review and rebalance once per year Annually

The power of common sense is not in knowing these principles — most investors already know them. It is in having the discipline to follow them consistently over a lifetime of market noise, social pressure, and emotional temptation.


End of implementation specification.